20 May 2009

Financial projections - and the effect of the crisis

I have already stated my belief that now more than ever (ok, at least more than a few years ago) DCF method is the way to go. However, current events have increased the uncertainty of cash flow projections, so here are a few pointers I think we should all have in mind when using the DCF to value a company:
1. Macro analysis should not be just a piece of sheet in the report being there for the report's sake!
2. Sector analysis should be done as thoroughly as possible. Check different data sources, make your own conclusions. Don't rely simply on trends and averages in the industry, but rather ascertain the position of the company within the sector. Is it well positioned to take advantage of the current situation, or will it come out on the losing end? 
3. It will take longer to get to the steady state, so the length of the forecast period should be extended; do not automatically settle for 3-5 year forecasts (as you shouldn't a few years ago either, but hey...)!!!
4. Since forecasts should be extended and since there's an increased uncertainty, we should think about increasing the number of possible scenarios. Instead of just optimistic/pessimistic scenario try several different options. The result might be a greater range of possible values, but that's perfectly fine. It's hard to pinpoint an "exact estimate" (oxymoron, I know) of value anyway, especially now.

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